Fargo Rate Weekly Update – August 15

This is the Weekly Update of my Fargo Rate for August 15

Starting Fargo: 372 Ending Fargo: 372 Starting Robustness: 411 Ending Robustness: 421

Monday Night – 1–4 Record

✅ Win: vs Fargo 550 ❌ Losses: vs 479, 521, 547, 492

This night added 5 games to robustness (411 → 416).Our projection for a small gain was right — Fargo remained static, 372 to 372.

Tuesday Night – 2–3 Record

✅ Wins: vs 446, 568

❌ Losses: vs 346, 573, 576

Tuesday’s five games moved robustness to 421, but Fargo stayed the same. Even with a strong win against the 568, the algorithm apparently needs a consistent string of higher wins to register a gain at this robustness level.

Understanding Match Odds

When facing a stronger opponent, your statistical chance of winning one game can be estimated from the Fargo gap:

• +100 points stronger → You win ~35% of games

• +150 points stronger → You win ~25% of games

• +200 points stronger → You win ~20% of games
  

For example, against someone 200 points higher, you’ll win about 2 out of 10 games. But with smart strategy — like controlling the table, avoiding low-percentage hero shots, and keeping the pressure on — you might bump that up to 25%.

In the next update, I'll mention some strategies to use against players 200 points above your skill level that can give you an extra 5% chance of winning. That 5% improvement may not sound like much, but in league play (where you only face each opponent once), it’s the difference between losing most of the time and picking up valuable extra wins.

Stroke Feedback & Highlights

Two different opponents in the past two weeks have complimented my stroke. That’s encouraging, especially since I still see much room for improvement — missed makeable shots remind me there’s more work to do.

Highlights this Fargo rate weekly update:

• Win vs 568: Run of 4 balls plus the 8 to win, including a couple of difficult shots.

• Tough match vs 500+: Ran 4 balls, broke the 8 out from another ball and left myself a back-angle, table-length bank — it was makeable and I was close, but no cigar.
  

BU Exam Score Update

Before Tuesday’s league match, I completed the second Billiard University (BU) Exam, created by Dr. Dave Alciatore.

• First Exam Score: 57

• Second Exam Score: 23

• Total BU Score: 80
  

According to Dr. Dave’s comparison chart, a BU score of 80 is roughly equivalent to a FargoRate of ~425.

This means my tested skill level may be ahead of my current measured Fargo rating — which makes sense, because Fargo is based solely on wins/losses against rated opponents, and it can lag behind actual improvement.

Learn more about the BU Exam here.

PROGRESS Overall, I'm satisfied with my progress. I am improving: I see it in making harder shots, getting better position by better control of the cue ball, and making 4 and 5 ball runs in competition.

Captain Bill Travis turned pool player

I'm disappointed that the Fargo Rate hasn't increased much, and with that type of increase rate, it will be difficult to reach the Fargo 400 by February that I'm aiming for. But I should also not lose sight of the fact that what really counts is the actual current skill level, and the higher the actual skill level is when I reach Las Vegas, the further I should be able to go in the division I'm placed in, which will most likely be Bronze.